'La Niña' may persist until April 2025.
The 'La Niña' weather phenomenon is officially in action, according to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). But how exactly does this phenomenon impact Brazil's climate? Let's explore the forecasts and expected impacts for 2025.
'La Niña' and its regional effects
In La Niña years, Brazil observes different climatic variations. According to Danielle Ferreira, a meteorologist at the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the Southern Region of Brazil tends to experience a significant reduction in rainfall, both in quantity and frequency. This can result in prolonged periods of drought.
North and Northeast regions of Brazil: the contrast
While the South suffers from a lack of precipitation, the northern strip of the North and Northeast Regions experiences the opposite: an excess of rainfall. This phenomenon has already caused intense rains in the area, resulting in frequent warnings of danger.
Ferreira explains that the cold fronts pass more quickly over the east of the South Region, bringing more rain to the Southeast and even part of the northeastern coast. However, other factors, such as the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean, also influence these weather patterns.
The role of the ocean
Both La Niña and El Niño form in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, highlighting the importance of the oceans in global climate dynamics. Ferreira describes 'El Niño' as the anomalous warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific, while 'La Niña' represents its anomalous cooling. Monitoring these conditions is crucial to predicting their impacts.
Impacts on Brazilian agribusiness
Brazilian agribusiness also feels the effects of 'La Niña'. The reduction in rainfall in the South Region negatively affects crops such as soybeans and corn, resulting in water deficits that hinder productivity. In the Northeast, increased rainfall may benefit water storage and some crops, but it also increases the risk of fungal diseases due to high humidity.
In the Midwest, irregular rainfall compromises crop development and can impact productivity, especially off-season corn and soybeans. The MATOPIBA region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) faces an imbalance between excess and scarcity of rainfall, affecting grain cultivation and increasing the risk of soil erosion.
These climate imbalances directly impact the supply of agricultural commodities, requiring companies to adopt robust risk management strategies, such as currency hedging and the use of futures contracts.
Expectations for 2025
Since October 2024, temperatures in the 'Niño 3.4' Region have been 0.5°C below average, reaching 1.0°C below average in December. The persistence of these anomalies confirms the presence of 'La Niña', which is expected to last until April 2025.
Forecasts for the coming months
Much of Brazil is expected to have above-average temperatures, with rainfall concentrated mainly in the North, Midwest, and northern and western areas of the Northeast Region in the first quarter of 2025.
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