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NOAA confirms "el niño" of strong intensity

Porto Alegre City - RS - Brazil 20230811

Source and photo: Notícias Agrícolas

According to the update from the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - an institution linked to the US government that is part of the US Department of Commerce - indicated a 95% chance of the weather phenomenon persisting between December and February 2024.

Some monitoring points, especially in Niño-3.4 (western geographic region of the Americas, between Colombia and the American West Coast), where the temperature was 1.0ºC warmer than the long period average in July. The Niño Oceanic index was 0.80ºC warmer than the average for May and July, meaning the second period of three consecutive months above the El Niño limit of 0.5ºC.

Repercussions for agriculture:

After waves of intense heat in the United States, affecting grain production, reducing the quality and productivity indices of American crops, consequently overturning the USDA's initial estimates, the El Niño phenomenon affects other areas of the planet, such as East Asia : China, Korea and Japan, this time suffering from powerful typhoons, affecting crops considerably.

For Brazil, the announcement by NOAA arrives one month after release for planting in the State of Paraná and raises the concerns of the entire productive sector for the next grain harvest. According to some national consultancies, "this year's phenomenon is different from all those observed in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, because in addition to El Niño, other factors favor the warming of waters in various regions of the world".

Meteorologists say that from now on the effects may be felt more intensely, especially in southern Brazil where, in addition to the maps showing above-average rainfall, temperatures are also higher. The tendency is for the effects to be felt more intensely from spring onwards.

In addition to the grain harvest, the coffee, fruit and vegetable and citrus sectors are also on alert. All of them had negative results in the last three of La Niña and, in addition to the return of the rainy season, the concern is also with the high temperatures that could reach the production areas.

In the Center-North of Brazil, the concern is with the cut in precipitation. Within what is expected, El Niño would reduce the volume of rain in these areas, also affecting rural areas and supply.

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