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Soybean: USDA report surprises with soybean production and productivity below expectations.

Updated: Oct 16, 2023

Porto Alegre - RS - Brazil - 20231012

Soybean supply and demand report published by USDA
Soybean: USDA Supply and Demand Report

Source: USDA and Rio Grande Agricola database

Once again, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) surprised the market, bringing American soybean production numbers below expectations. Now that the 2023/2024 American harvest is practically consolidated, the department's report brings numbers below expectations, compared to previous reports released by the department, however, within a more realistic situation for soybean production in the United States, contrary to those forecasts initial estimates that overestimated American production and productivity, in mid-March of the current year.

In our previous comments we had already highlighted that, step by step, the USDA would bring its numbers into reality, given that the United States suffered severe impacts from the climatic adversities that hit the soybean-producing region in the country.

Soybean production in the United States for the 2023/24 harvest was reduced to 111.70 million tons, compared to the 112.84 million tons announced in September and, compared to the 2022/2023 harvest, which was 116.22 million of tons, was 3.89% lower. Soybean productivity for the 2023/2024 harvest, in relation to what was estimated in September, was 55.59 bags per hectare, against 56.15 bags per hectare in the last report.

The other USDA indicators have not changed much, with the exception of Brazilian exports which are now 97.50 million tons and, also, the department predicts a 3.04% reduction in world stocks, reaching 115.62 million tons. . Furthermore, there was a reduction in the global production estimate to 399.50 million tons, approximately 1.83 million tons below the September estimates.

Another number that was overestimated was Brazilian soybean production, which is forecast at 163 million tons, but we are still in the middle of planting the 2023/2024 harvest and, at this moment, Brazil is suffering from adverse weather conditions, caused by the phenomenon " el niño", which prevents the advancement of soybean planting, remaining, in some important regions, below the previous year's levels, for example: Mato Grosso: 2022/2023 soybean harvest, at the same time, planting was at 41, 35% against 35.09% for the 2023/2024 soybean harvest.

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