USDA Reduces Corn Stocks and Increases Exports; Soybean Data Remains Unchanged from March.
- Vanderlei Cadore
- Apr 10
- 2 min read
USDA significantly adjusts final corn stocks in the US and projects an increase in exports, completely ignoring the tariff war.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest monthly supply and demand bulletin, showing a significant reduction in final US corn stocks, along with an adjustment in cereal exports. The indicators remained practically unchanged.
Soybean: 2024/25 Crop Indicators
US Soybean - 2024/25 Crop
Production: remains estimated at 118.84 million tons.
Ending stocks: slightly increased to 10.21 million tons.
Exports: remain estimated at 49.67 million tons.
Soybean crushing: slightly increased to 65.86 million tons.
Planted area: remained at 35.25 million hectares.
Harvested area: remained at 34.93 million hectares.
South America
Brazil:
Production: maintained at 169 million tons.
Exports: maintained at 105.5 million tons.
Ending stocks: increased to 32.31 million tons.
Argentina:
Production: maintained at 49 million tons.
Exports: slight reduction to 24.65 million tons.
Ending stocks: maintained at 4.50 million tons.
China
Production: maintained at 20.65 million tons.
Imports: maintained at 109 million tons.
Ending stocks: maintained at 43.96 million tons.
World
Production: slight decrease to 420.58 million tons.
Ending stocks: slight increase to 122.47 million tons.
Corn: 2024/25 Crop Indicators
US Corn - 2024/25 Crop
Production: remains estimated at 377.63 million tons.
Final stocks: reduced to 37.21 million tons.
Exports: increased to 64.77 million tons.
Soybean crushing: remained at 139.71 million tons.
Planted area: remained at 36.67 million hectares.
Harvested area: remained at 33.55 million hectares.
South America
Brazil:
Production: maintained at 126 million tons.
Exports: maintained at 44 million tons.
Ending stocks: slight increase to 2.98 million tons.
Argentina:
Production: maintained at 50 million tons.
Exports: maintained at 36 million tons.
Ending stocks: slight increase to 2.38 million tons.
Ukraine
Production: maintained at 26.80 million tons.
Exports: maintained at 22 million tons.
Ending stocks: maintained at 0.74 million tons.
China
Production: maintained at 294.92 million tons.
Imports: maintained at 8 million tons.
Ending stocks: maintained at 201.18 million tons.
World
Production: significant increase to 1,225.10 million tons.
Ending stocks: reduced to 287.65 million tons.
The USDA kept projections for South America practically unchanged, with slight adjustments, but significantly altered final US corn stocks and exports, adding nearly 10 million tons to global corn production.
Another factor not foreseen in the USDA report was the possible market losses for the US due to the tariff war that Donald Trump has been waging with the rest of the world, keeping total soybean exports unchanged, which, barring any agreement, will hardly be able to export part of its supply to China. This data is relevant to understand that, by forecasting more exports, the US will have to seek new markets and, if unsuccessful, final soybean stocks will be well above the forecast.
This is the tip: keep an eye on American exports and final stocks.
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