Porto Alegre - RS - Brazil 20231115
Rource: Conab - Companhia Nacional de Abastacimento
The second harvest survey carried out by Conab - Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, published this month of November, brings numbers lower than the previous harvest, standing at 316.71 million tons, around 1.5% below the 2022/2023 harvest, which outside 321.41 million tons.
Soybean complex:
The highlight goes to soybeans, which will see an increase in planted area by 2.8%, estimated at 45.3 million hectares, compared to 44.07 million hectares in the previous harvest. Productivity increases by 2.2%, reaching 59.77 bags per hectare, compared to 58.45 bags per hectare in the 2022/2023 harvest. Estimated production was 162.42 million tons, around 5.1% higher than the previous harvest, which was 154.6 million tons.
Rource: Conab and database of Rio Grande Agricola.
In the last six years, Brazil has had a great expansion in soybean production, with growth of 28.87% in the planted area, going from 35.149 million hectares in the 2017/2018 harvest to 45.295 million hectares in the current harvest. The growth in production in tons was also representative, from 123.25 million tons to 162.42 million tons in the current harvest, with a growth of 31.77%, guaranteeing a consequent increase in productivity, which on average rose by 4.49 % in the last years.
The comparative data demonstrated that, until November 10, the evolution of planting of the 2023/2024 soybean harvest was below the same period of the previous year, reaching 48.4% of the total planting, while in the previous harvest, at the same time, it reached 57.5%. The rainy climate in the south of Brazil and dry weather in the central and northern regions has hindered the smooth progress of planting and, furthermore, there are reports of areas being replanted due to excessive rainfall and also due to lack of rain, which is the case in the region Midwest.
If the numbers from this second Conab survey are consolidated, Brazil will have its largest soybean harvest in history, definitively consolidating itself on the international scene as the largest producer and exporter of the oilseed. However, to guarantee another successful year in soybean production, it will depend exclusively on climatic conditions, whose forecasts indicate that we will have a long way to go to consolidate another excellent harvest, as climate instabilities are benefiting the southern areas and harming the largest producing area, which is the Midwest, with an effect opposite to what happened in the previous harvest, where the southern states of Brazil suffered huge losses due to the drought, now bringing losses to the Midwest region, which suffers from high temperatures.
Corn complex:
Corn production for the 2023/2024 harvest is estimated at 119.07 million tons, around 9.48% lower compared to the 2022/2023 harvest, which was 131.54 million tons of cereal. The low price of cereal is one of the factors that weighs most on Brazilian producers' decision to plant more product, with the estimated area reduction falling by 1.119 million hectares, comprising half of the total reduction and the other half refers to productivity falling from 98.51 bags per hectare in the previous harvest, and to 93.89 bags per hectare in the current harvest.
Rource: Conab and database of Rio Grande Agricola.
Conab - Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, estimates an increase in domestic corn consumption for the 2023/2024 cycle of another 4.89 million tons, around 6.12% more than in the previous harvest and estimates a reduction of more of 17 million tons in Brazilian cereal exports for this new harvest, reducing from 55 million this year to 38 million tons exported next year.
As for final consumption and stock, which will be 8.86 million tons for the new cycle, it is not yet known whether the large-scale injection of wheat for feed was estimated, the harvest of which was damaged by the large volume of rain in the producing region, in southern Brazil. If low-standard wheat actually enters the feed market, it is possible that there will still be enough balance to export another 5 million tons of corn, increasing exports to quantities above 43 million tons by 2024.
Others cultivars:
Cotton:
Growth of 4.2% in the area to be seeded, totaling 1.733 million hectares of area to be planted and a forecast of cotton lint production of 3.039 million tons. Planting not started.
Rice:
Growth of 5.2% in the area to be seeded, with a production forecast of 10.8 million tons for the 2023/2024 harvest. Seeding at 52.3% until the report release date on November 10, 2023.
Bean:
Growth of 3.3% in the total area to be seeded, considering the first, second and third harvests, estimated at 2.8 million hectares for the 2023/2024 harvest. The estimated total production in Brazil will be 3.1 million tons for the current harvest. Bean planting in progress and varying depending on the producing region.
Wheat:
The 2023 harvest is still being harvested and is expected to end in December, with an estimated total of 9.6 million tons of product.
Production of other products:
Peanuts: 902.7 thousand tons.
Sesame: 174.2 thousand tons.
Sunflower: 80.7 thousand tons.
Castor bean: 74.5 thousand tons.
Sorghum: 4.357 million tons.
Oats: 1.106 million tons.
Canola: 103.2 thousand tons.
Rye: 9.1 thousand tons.
Barley: 513 thousand tons.
Triticale: 53 thousand tons.
